Visualització de l'arxiu de dijous, 8 de març 2012
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 068 emès a 2200Z el Mar 08 2012IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-07 a 2100Z-08 Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-07 al 2100Z-08
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Mar del 09 a les Mar del 11
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protó | 99% | 99% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 08 Mar 140 Predit 09 Mar-11 Mar 140/135/135 Mitjana de 90 dies 08 Mar 125
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 07 Mar 033/064 Estimat Afr/Ap 08 Mar 018/027 Predit Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 09 Mar al 11 Mar
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempesta menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempesta menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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