Visualització de l'arxiu de dimarts, 9 d’agost 2011
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2011 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 221 emès a 2200Z el Aug 09 2011IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-08 a 2100Z-09 Solar activity was high. Region 1263 (N17W83) produced
an X6/2b flare at 09/0805Z, the largest x-ray event so far in Cycle
24. This flare was accompanied by multi-frequency radio emissions,
including a Tenflare (710sfu), and Type II (1551 km/s) and IV
signatures. A full halo CME was subsequently observed in LASCO C3
imagery at 09/0906Z. Initial plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be
about 1000 km/s. Earlier in the period, a CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery at 0406Z. This event was attributed to an M2/1b flare
from Region 1263 at 09/03435Z. While the area of Region 1263
diminished over the last 24 hours, the longitudinal extent expanded,
and the region ended the period as an Ehc type spot group with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is likely to be low to
moderate. A slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, and/or
proton event, remains for Day 1 (10 August). Event probabilities are
expected to gradually decrease as Region 1263 rotates around the
west limb.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-08 al 2100Z-09
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled through the period under
the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s for most
of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was predominantly near zero. The greater than 100 MeV protons
crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 09/0825Z, reached a maximum of
2 pfu at 09/0855Z, and ended at 09/1045Z. The greater than 10 MeV
protons crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 09/0845Z, reached a
maximum of 26 pfu at 09/1210Z, and ended at 09/1715Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days (10-12 August). Unsettled conditions are expected on Day 1 (10
August) as a weak remnant of the 08 August CME arrives. Currently,
a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on Days 2 and 3
(11-12 August). Analysis of the 09/0906Z CME is presently underway
to determine its potential geoeffectiveness.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Aug del 10 a les Aug del 12
| Classe M | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protó | 99% | 60% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 09 Aug 098 Predit 10 Aug-12 Aug 095/085/085 Mitjana de 90 dies 09 Aug 096
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 08 Aug 008/010 Estimat Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/008 Predit Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 10 Aug al 12 Aug
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempesta menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempesta menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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Últimes notícies
dilluns, 10 de juny 2024
CME impact, X1.5 solar flare
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