Visualització de l'arxiu de dimarts, 6 de gener 2004
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2004 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 006 emès a 2200Z el Jan 06 2004IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-05 a 2100Z-06 Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537
(N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was
associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this
east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed
component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the
past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in
size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably
quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24
hours.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region
537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these
regions.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-05 al 2100Z-06
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be
observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from
the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz
turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet
to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7
and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed
wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning
late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME
associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside
to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9
January.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Jan del 07 a les Jan del 09
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protó | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 06 Jan 117 Predit 07 Jan-09 Jan 120/120/125 Mitjana de 90 dies 06 Jan 137
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/022 Estimat Afr/Ap 06 Jan 015/022 Predit Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 025/030-025/030-020/020
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 07 Jan al 09 Jan
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempesta menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempesta menor | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
<< Anar a la pàgina de visió general diària
Últimes notícies
dimarts, 17 de març 2026
M2.7 solar flare, CME arrival possible
diumenge, 1 de febrer 2026
Complex sunspot region 4366
dilluns, 19 de gener 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
Últims missatges del fòrum
X1.5 CME 46Unspecified geomagnetic activity 136AR4405 64The hypothetical role of metal ions in Sporadic E skip 8AR4399 8
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Fets del temps al espai
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| Última Flamarada-M | 2026/03/28 | M1.3 |
| Última tempesta geomagnètica | 2026/03/25 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Dies sense taques | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 dies |
| 2026 | 3 dies (3%) |
| Últim dia sense taques | 2026/02/24 |
| Número mensual mitjà de taques solars | |
|---|---|
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| Last 30 days | 86.6 +11.2 |
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