Visualització de l'arxiu de divendres, 27 d’abril 2001
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2001 Apr 27 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 117 emès a 2200Z el Apr 27 2001IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-26 a 2100Z-27 Solar activity was moderate. Region 9433 (N18W39)
produced an M1/1f flare at 27/1915 UTC along with isolated C-class
subflares. Region 9433 began to gradually decay following
yesterday's M7/2b flare with decreased spot count and penumbral
coverage. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted in the
trailer portion of the region, where most flare activity has
occurred. Region 9441 (N08E38) produced isolated subflares as it
gradually increased in spot count and penumbral coverage, though it
remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured spot group. New Region
9443 (S10E21), a small simple bipole, was numbered.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce mostly low-level
M-class flares. However, it may produce an isolated major flare
during the period.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-26 al 2100Z-27
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV electron flux became enhanced following
yesterdays M7/2b flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to commence during the latter half of 28 April and continue
into 29 April following yesterday's M7/2b flare and associated
full-halo CME . Active to major storm levels will be possible during
this disturbance. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during 30
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could increase to event
levels on 28 April. Region 9433 may produce a proton flare during
the period.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 28 a les Apr del 30
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protó | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 27 Apr 191 Predit 28 Apr-30 Apr 185/180/175 Mitjana de 90 dies 27 Apr 167
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 26 Apr 008/007 Estimat Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/008 Predit Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 015/010-040/040-012/020
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 28 Apr al 30 Apr
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempesta menor | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Tempesta menor | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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