Visualització de l'arxiu de divendres, 20 d’abril 2001
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2001 Apr 20 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 110 emès a 2200Z el Apr 20 2001IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-19 a 2100Z-20 Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare was an
M4/1F at 20/2004 UTC in Region 9433 (N17E52). This area also
produced an M1/1F at 20/0523 UTC. The region remains a
moderately-sized F-type sunspot group with some mixed polarities in
the central portions and a total area similar to yesterday's. Region
9432 (N08W06) also produced C-class subflares. Today's Penticton
F10.7 noon reading was taken during the M4, resulting in a
flare-enhanced value of 180 sfu.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class activity in Region 9433 is likely with
the possibility of an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-19 al 2100Z-20
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event dropped below the 10 pfu event threshold at 20/1015 UTC
(start 18/0315 UTC and 321 pfu peak at 18/1045 UTC) and continues to
slowly decay.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A major flare in Region 9433
could generate another greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 21 a les Apr del 23
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protó | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 20 Apr 180 Predit 21 Apr-23 Apr 175/185/195 Mitjana de 90 dies 20 Apr 165
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 19 Apr 005/007 Estimat Afr/Ap 20 Apr 008/010 Predit Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 21 Apr al 23 Apr
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempesta menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempesta menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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