Visualització de l'arxiu de dissabte, 28 de novembre 1998
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 332 emès a 2200Z el NOV 28 1998IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-27 a 2100Z-28 SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33)
PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A
PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES
REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8395 IS NOW A
MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N,
BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12)
DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE
INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES,
FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-27 al 2100Z-28
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2
AND 3.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les NOV del 29 a les DEC del 01
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protó | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 28 NOV 165 Predit 29 NOV-01 DEC 165/165/170 Mitjana de 90 dies 28 NOV 132
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC 005/010-015/018-012/010
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 29 NOV al 01 DEC
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempesta menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempesta menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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