Visualització de l'arxiu de dimarts, 31 de març 1998
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 1998 Mar 31 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 090 emès a 2200Z el MAR 31 1998IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-30 a 2100Z-31 SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
TODAY, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2/SF AT 0302Z FROM REGION 8190
(S22E36). REGION 8190 HAS SHOWN STEADY GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS AND WAS THE SOURCE OF THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY.
NEW REGION 8191 (S23E48) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SMALL BIPOLAR
GROUP JUST EAST OF 8190. REGION 8185 (S25W51) IS STILL THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE DISK BUT WAS DECLINING IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC
FIELD INTENSITY. LASCO IMAGES BEGINNING AT 31/0626Z SHOWED A LARGE
ERUPTION OF MATERIAL; THE PROJECTION WAS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE DISK. THE LACK OF ANY CORRESPONDING SIGNATURES ON THE DISK
SUGGEST THAT THE SOURCE WAS PROBABLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
REGION 8190 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE REGION OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-30 al 2100Z-31
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. MINOR INTENSITY
SUBSTORMS WERE RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDE BETWEEN FROM 0300-0900Z,
LEADING TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDE STATIONS AND ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PLANETARY INDICES. THE FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL
LATITUDES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR
STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS, OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ENHANCED ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF A TRANSIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT
ERUPTION ON 30 MARCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED
TO QUIET LEVELS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les APR del 01 a les APR del 03
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protó | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 31 MAR 108 Predit 01 APR-03 APR 110/110/105 Mitjana de 90 dies 31 MAR 099
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR 020/015-012/020-007/015
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 01 APR al 03 APR
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempesta menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 60% | 50% | 25% |
| Tempesta menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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