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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
15/1932Z from Region 3639 (N30E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 589 km/s at 15/0122Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
15/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17
Apr, 18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 192 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 015/015-011/015-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/16 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 153.1 +16.6 |
| Last 30 days | 175.9 +69.7 |