Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0829Z from Region 3567 (N19E54). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb,
03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 30/2131Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 31/0035Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03
Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 136 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/01 | X1.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/06/02 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| June 2024 | 194 +57.5 |
| Last 30 days | 151 +2.5 |