Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/1529Z from Region 3280 (S08W94). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 18/2033Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 18/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
18/1549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Apr), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 153 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 018/020-017/024-015/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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