Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar,
12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 10/1935Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 10/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
10/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 127 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/06/02 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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