Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 081 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 082/084/084 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 45% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 01% |
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