Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of
note in the five sunspot groups on the visible disk. All these
active regions are small with simple magnetic configurations. New
Region 883 (S04E56) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
disturbed conditions were associated with a high speed coronal hole
stream. Solar wind speed gradually increased to over 600 km/s
following the onset of the high speed stream midday on 06 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible
on 08 May due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions on 09 and 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 086 Predicted 08 May-10 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 07 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 014/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 018/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 012/020-005/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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