Viewing archive of Monday, 19 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity
consisted of a few B-class events from Region 837 (S10W06), which
has developed into the largest sunspot group on the disk at 200
millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed
showed an increase up to about 470 km/s after 1700Z, which was
accompanied by a southward interplanetary magnetic field. The solar
wind speed appeared to be slowly declining after 2030Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (20 -
22 December).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 090 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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