Viewing archive of Friday, 2 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 02 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 806 produced a
long duration B4 flare at 01/2321 UTC with an associated CME first
seen in LASCO imagery at 01/2354 UTC. This CME was a complex full
halo event, with the biggest contribution believed to have its
origin on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from Region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor
storming occurred between 0600 - 0900 UTC and again between 1600 -
1800 UTC after the arrival of a transient shock at approximately
02/1340 UTC from the CME on 31 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels with a chance for isolated minor
storming on 02 September as the transient flow passes. The
geomagnetic field should be at unsettled levels on 03 September.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 September due to
the arrival of the CME associated with the long duration B4 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 077 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 075/080/085 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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