Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. All four spotted regions
on the disk were quiet and stable. Region 708 (N10E56) is showing
slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29 November - 01 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
period of minor storm level activity from 0600-0900 UTC due to a
substorm that appeared to be triggered by a northward turning of the
IMF after a sustained interval of weakly southward orientation.
Solar wind data show the onset of a solar sector boundary from
positive to negative orientation at about 1500 UTC. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated
active periods during the next three days (29 November - 01
December). The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole are
expected to begin late on 01 December.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 113 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 010/010-010/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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