Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Old Region 652
(N08, L=348) has rotated further beyond the western solar limb and
yet was responsible for the most significant activity observed
today. Region 652 produced a C8 x-ray flare that peaked at 31/0657Z
and had an associated CME as seen on LASCO imagery that does not
appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 654 (N08W28)
showed some decay today in spot area coverage and produced a lesser
B-class flare. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 086 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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