Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains
steady at background levels, with very little fluxuation. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Regions 551 (S08W68) and 554 (S10E12) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed increased to around 700 km/s during
the period, and has been steady for the past 12 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
for a brief period today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions through 13
February, under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. A decrease in geomagnetic activity is
expected 14 and 15 February as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 112 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 012/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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