Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The now spotless Region 235 (N13W08) produced a subfaint flare early in the period, but has been quiet since. Occasional intensity enhancements accompanied a small increase in the size and complexity of Region 236 (N16W41). New Regions 237 (S26E00) and 238 (N09E15) were numbered today. The remaining regions are small, showing no significant changes this period. There are several large, but mostly quiescent filaments on the visible disk. Occasional motion was noted in the large filament centered near N22W12. A long duration, but low intensity X-ray enhancement was observed beginning at around 28/1700Z. This was likely associated with a strong CME that appears to have originated behind the NW limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. There's a chance for low C-class activity from Regions 234 (N19E19) and 236.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active at all latitudes. A high speed stream, associated with a large equatorial coronal hole, began late on 26 Dec and continues to buffet the magnetic field. The peak solar wind in this high speed stream exceeded 750 km/s, but has declined slowly to near 650 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The high speed coronal hole stream currently impacting the geomagnetic field will gradually subside through day one. Ejecta from the CME off the NW limb late in the period today does not appear Earthbound. Expect mostly unsettled levels through days two and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 117
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  022/037
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%40%30%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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