Viewing archive of Monday, 7 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred. Region 139 (N11E06) remains the largest, most complex
sunspot group on the disk and continues to grow slowly. The large
leader and follower sunspot umbra are contained within the same
penumbra but do not appear to be close enough to be technically
classified as a delta configuration. New Regions 143 (S19W38) and
144 (N12E44) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
most active periods were from 07/0300 to 0900 UTC and followed
several hours of sustained southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal
hole stream may influence activity levels over the next two or three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 164 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 009/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 020/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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