Viewing archive of Monday, 27 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 9236 (N19W51) has started to decline in most
parameters since yesterday's major flare. New Region 9244 (N15W30)
is emerging rapidly to the east of 9236 and has already generated a
C-class subflare. New Region 9243 (S12E30) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9236 retains enough magnetic complexity for
another major flare. If Region 9244 continues to emerge at its
present rate it could start producing low-level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
This activity has been in response to the flare/CME activity on
24-25 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in
progress but is declining. The peak flux was 942 pfu at 26/2030 UTC.
The greater than 100 MeV proton event ended at 26/2040 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. CME's that occurred
on 26-27 November are expected to extend the present disturbance.
Barring any new CME's, the level of geomagnetic activity is expected
to diminish to unsettled to active levels by the third day of the
forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue its decay, ending within the next 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 192 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 040/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 030/040-030/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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