Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8
X-RAY BURST AT 28/1018UT AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN H-ALPHA LIMB
EVENT (SURGE/SPRAY) NEAR NW 23. THIS EVENT MOST LIKELY OCCURRED IN
RECENTLY DEPARTED REGION 9002. REGION 9017 (S13E29) REMAINS THE MOST
COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS AREA HAS
YET TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 9021 (N03E18) AND
9022 (S21E67) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE AND AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE IS POSSIBLE. REGION 9017 IS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
INCREASED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLES.
III. Event Probabilities 29 MAY to 31 MAY
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 MAY 156 Predicted 29 MAY-31 MAY 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 28 MAY 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY 012/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY 012/025-015/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 MAY to 31 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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