Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW SUNSPOT REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: REGION 8453 (S26E44) AND REGION 8454 (S22E16).
BOTH ARE SIMPLE, STABLE, B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS VERY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A SOLAR
CORONAL HOLE WILL BE ROTATING INTO GEOEFFECTIVE LONGITUDES OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY TO UNSETTLED LEVELS, WITH
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS AS WELL.
III. Event Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 FEB 111 Predicted 03 FEB-05 FEB 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 FEB 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB 000/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB 002/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB 010/008-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 FEB to 05 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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