Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY OCCASIONAL SMALL B-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8032 (S22W08) EXHIBITED SLOW DECLINE DURING THE DAY. REGION 8031 (S30W87) IS ROTATING OFF THE DISK AND WAS STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL ABOUT 1200UT. SINCE THEN THE MID-LATITUDE SITES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED AND THE HIGH LATITUDE SITES HAVE BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 APR to 19 APR
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 APR 075
  Predicted   17 APR-19 APR  073/071/070
  90 Day Mean        16 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR  005/008-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 APR to 19 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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