Viewing archive of Friday, 29 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 7999
(S04W47) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 29/2044Z. MINOR CENTIMETRIC
RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. DURING THE PERIOD, REGION
7999 EXHIBITED SLOW SUNSPOT DECAY AND SLIGHT PROPER MOTION OF
A SOUTHERN TRAILER SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE POSSIBLE
FROM REGION 7999. IT IS NOT LIKELY THE M-CLASS FLARE
MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE BEGINNING OF AN INCREASE IN FLARE
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 7999 BECAUSE OF GENERAL DECAY IN THE
REGION. THE M1 FLARE IS MORE LIKELY A RESULT OF SUNSPOT
PROPER MOTION AND REALIGNMENT OF THE OVERLYING FIELDS.
THE PROPER MOTION OCCURRED AT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE
REGION SO THIS PHENOMENON IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DROPPED BELOW 400 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 NOV 091 Predicted 30 NOV-02 DEC 090/088/085 90 Day Mean 29 NOV 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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