Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 04 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M9.1/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 04/0619 UTC, the strongest of the period. A Type II (est. 950 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep along with a Tenflare were observed with the event. A CME is suspected to be associated with the flare but additional coronagraph imagery is need for conformation and analysis. This region and Region 3664 (S19E32, Ekc/beta-delta) continued to be most complex. Region 3666 (N07E10, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) also exhibited notable growth. Other eruptive activity included a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC from an unspotted area to the east of Region 3666 (N07E09, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). This event also produced a Type II (est. 392 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME, first seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC, was analyzed and modeled. The results suggested the slow-moving periphery should pass by Earth around 09 May.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 04-06 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 04-06 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 04-06 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from the low 400s to near 370/km/s by the periods end. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive polarity after 03/1830 UTC.

Forecast

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare from Region 3663.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field may reach unsettled and active levels on 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions and periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences.