3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2024 is 5 (.67NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 05       May 06       May 07
00-03UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    2.67     
03-06UT       3.33         5.67 (G2)    3.00     
06-09UT       2.67         5.67 (G2)    2.67     
09-12UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    1.67     
12-15UT       2.00         3.67         1.67     
15-18UT       3.00         3.67         2.67     
18-21UT       4.00         2.67         3.67     
21-00UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.67     

Rationale

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024

              May 05  May 06  May 07
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale

A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 04 2024 0619 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024

              May 05        May 06        May 07
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.