Viewing archive of lördag, 18 maj 2013
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2013 May 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 138 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 May 2013IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
18/0345Z from Region 1748 (N12E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20
May, 21 May).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 476 km/s at 18/0911Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/0244Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 18/0146Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32
pfu at 17/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (19 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (19
May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20
May, 21 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 May till 21 May
| M-klass | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 60% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 May 132 Prognoserat 19 May-21 May 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 18 May 121
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 May 009/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 May 018/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 017/035-014/015-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 May till 21 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 75% | 40% | 25% |
Senaste nytt
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.4 +25.6 |