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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 191 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Jul 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1515 (S15W89) produced the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z. Region 1520 (S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the period. New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group. A large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about 09/0930Z. At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament was centered near S35W32. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days (10 - 12 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with high latitude major storm intervals. This activity was most likely a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about 09/0600Z through the end of the period. Interplanetary field strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z, reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z. This weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n flare from Region 1515.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the 06 July CME. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Jul till 12 Jul
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       09 Jul 174
  Prognoserat   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Jul till 12 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%10%05%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%10%05%

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