Viewing archive of söndag, 8 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 08 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 190 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W76) produced
an M6/1n at 08/1632Z along with a 640 sfu Tenflare, Type II (est.
speed 2271 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME became
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/1648Z. The majority of the ejecta
appears to be directed southwest but further analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Region 1520 (S15E42)
continued to grow to 1070 millionths and is considered an Fhc-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The region produced
an M1/Sf at 08/0953Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(09-11 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The proton event that began at 07/0400Z and peaked at 07/0745
(25 pfu), ended at 07/2110Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
enhanced but below threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (09 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (10 July), with a chance for
isolated active periods due to possible weak effects from the CME
observed on 06 July. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected
for day three (11 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Jul till 11 Jul
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 Jul 178 Prognoserat 09 Jul-11 Jul 165/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Jul 008/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 08 Jul 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-013/015-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Jul till 11 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 10% |
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