Viewing archive of söndag, 20 maj 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 141 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 May 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1487
(N19W05) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group. Region 1483
(S25W43) developed additional trailer spots and is now classified as
a D-type group. All other regions were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels for the next three days (21 - 23 May). A
slight chance for M-class activity exists all three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
minor storm interval during the 20/0300 - 0600Z period. At about
20/0136Z, the ACE satellite observed an interplanetary (IP) shock
passage with a corresponding weak sudden impulse observed at the
Boulder magnetometer (15 nT) at 20/0215Z. Prior to the IP shock,
solar wind velocities were generally in the 400 km/s range, the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) varied between
+/- 3 nT and the total field (Bt) was at 5 nT. Following the shock,
wind speeds increased to about 475 km/s, Bz varied between +/- 8 nT
and Bt increased to about 8 nT. The shock likely indicated the
arrival of the 17 May CME.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (21 May).
By days two and three (22 - 23 May), quiet to unsettled levels with
a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects coupled with the arrival of
the 18 May CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 May till 23 May
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 May 131 Prognoserat 21 May-23 May 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 20 May 116
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 May 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 007/006-010/010-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 May till 23 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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