Viewing archive of måndag, 13 februari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 044 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Feb 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days
(14-16 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and
ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of
short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels.
Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11
February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in
geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are
forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm
possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside,
with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the
transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16
February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Feb 108 Prognoserat 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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