Viewing archive of torsdag, 26 januari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 026 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Jan 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced
several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The
region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An
associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at
26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to
be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO
A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27
January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two
and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west
limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a
maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28
January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton
event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on
day one (27 January).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Jan till 29 Jan
| M-klass | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Jan 128 Prognoserat 27 Jan-29 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Jan 017/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Jan till 29 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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