Viewing archive of torsdag, 29 december 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Dec 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 363 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Dec 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1389 (S23E58) produced the largest event of the
period, an M1/1F flare at 29/1350Z. Region 1398 continues to grow
and evolve as it rotates around the east limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (30 December - 01
January).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, have shown an increase from 280 km/s to almost 450 km/s
in the past 24 hours. Signatures in the solar wind indicate the
possible arrivals of the forecasted CMEs, however the intensity was
lower than expected.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (30
December) as the effects of the CMEs wane. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on day two (31 December). A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (01 January) as a
coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Dec till 01 Jan
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Dec 147 Prognoserat 30 Dec-01 Jan 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 012/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Dec till 01 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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|---|---|
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