Viewing archive of söndag, 19 juni 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jun 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 170 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Jun 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1234 (S16W74) and 1237
(S15E39) each produced a C-class flare during the period. Region
1234 showed no significant change as it approached the west limb.
Region 1236 (N15E06) produced an isolated B-class flare. It showed
no significant changes and remained an E-type group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C1/Sf flare from Region 1237 at
19/1637Z was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 519 km/s and
appeared to have an Earthward component. New Region 1238 (S17E11), a
two-spot Axx group, was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (20 - 22 June).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2
(20 - 21 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet levels on day 3 (22 June). The CME mentioned above is not
expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Jun till 22 Jun
| M-klass | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Jun 099 Prognoserat 20 Jun-22 Jun 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Jun 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Jun till 22 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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onsdag, 20 mars 2024
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