Viewing archive of tisdag, 29 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 088 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1183
(N15E39) produced a single C1 flare at 29/0515Z, along with several
optical subflares early in the period. Region 1183 showed gradual
spot and penumbral growth through the summary period and was
classified as an Eac group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1176 (S16W24) showed no significant changes during the period
and produced an isolated B-class flare. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (30 March - 01 April) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1183. Old Region 1169 (N17, L=078) is expected to
return to the visible disk late on day 1 (30 March) and may also
provide a chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. A weak geomagnetic sudden
impulse (SI) occurred at 29/1604Z (8 nT, as measured by the Boulder
USGS magnetometer). The SI likely represented the passage of the
halo-CME observed on 24 March. ACE solar wind data showed increased
velocities (313 to 384 km/s), as well as increases in density (2 to
27 p/cc) and IMF Bt (5 to 9 nT) following the CME passage. IMF Bz
was mostly northward following the passage.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (30
March - 01 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Mar till 01 Apr
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Mar 116 Prognoserat 30 Mar-01 Apr 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Mar 002/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Mar till 01 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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