Viewing archive of torsdag, 17 februari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 048 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Feb 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1158 (S19W52) decayed in area but retained a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. It produced several C-class events, the
largest of which was a C6 observed at 16/0146Z. Region 1161
exhibited slow growth and has an area of 140 millionths with a
beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for an
isolated X-class event for the next three days (18-20 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods
for day one (18 February). This activity is due to the effects of
two CMEs; the first associated with an M6 event at 13/1735Z and the
second associated with an X2 event at 15/0156Z. Quiet to active
conditions are expected for day two (19 February) as the effects of
these disturbances wane. The geomagnetic field is expected to
return to mostly quiet conditions on day three (20 February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Feb till 20 Feb
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Feb 111 Prognoserat 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Feb 001/002 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 025/025-015/015-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Feb till 20 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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|---|---|
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