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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 046 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Feb 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S21W27) produced an X2 x-ray event at 15/0156Z associated with a Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep. A halo CME was associated with this event and had an estimated plane-of-sky speed around 710 km/s. Region 1158 has increased in area to 600 millionths and has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. This region also produced multiple C-class events the largest being a C4 at 15/0432Z. New Region 1161 (N11E38) has grown and is currently a magnetically simple D-type sunspot group, but did not produce any flares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated high activity for the next three days (16-18 February). Region 1158 is the most likely source for activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with isolated unsettled conditions to begin the period. Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a drop in total field to around 4nT as the effects from yesterdays transient subsided. GOES-13 indicated an enhancement of the greater than 10MeV protons starting at 15/0710Z and peaking around 2.6 PFU at geosynchronous orbit. Solar wind velocities did increase slightly to around 500 km/s most likely due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 February). Day two (17 February) is expected to be quiet to active with a chance for minor storming late in the period. Day three (18 February) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storming. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected arrival of the CME from the X2 event described in part IA.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Feb till 18 Feb
M-klass60%60%60%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       15 Feb 113
  Prognoserat   16 Feb-18 Feb  103/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/010
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/006
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  008/010-018/018-025/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Feb till 18 Feb
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%25%35%
Små stormförhållanden01%15%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%45%45%
Små stormförhållanden05%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden00%05%05%

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