Viewing archive of lördag, 12 februari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 043 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Feb 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1159 (N18E12) produced a
C2 x-ray flare at 12/1506Z. Newly numbered Region 1160 near N16E86
produced several B-class flares from around the east limb early in
the period, as well as B8 x-ray flare at 12/2036Z. Two limb CMEs
were observed on LASCO C2 in conjunction with flaring that
originated from the proximity of Region 1160. A Type II radio sweep
with an estimated speed of 1,977 km/s was reported by the Paleahua
Solar Observatory at 11/2146Z and is believed to be associated with
the first of the two aforementioned CMEs. Neither CME is forecast to
be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely and a chance for a M-class flare during
the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (13 and 14 February)
and quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3
(15 February), due to a recurrent extension of the southern crown
coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Feb till 15 Feb
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Feb 096 Prognoserat 13 Feb-15 Feb 096/098/098 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Feb till 15 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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