Viewing archive of torsdag, 25 augusti 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Aug 25 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 237 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Aug 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 803 (N12E67) produced
an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0440 UTC. The event was associated with
a CME off the east limb. Region 800 (N17W35) is currently the
largest on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region 804
(N11E12) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 800
or Region 803 during the next three days (26-28 August).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels. Today's solar wind data was generally consistent with a
coronal hole stream: velocities were elevated and the magnetic field
indicated ongoing wave-like fluctuations. The speed gradually
declined from initial values around 730 km/s to day-end values
around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
22/2040 UTC ended today at 25/0040 UTC. The peak flux was 330 PFU at
23/1045 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods for 26 August. Conditions should be generally
unsettled for 27-28 August.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Aug till 28 Aug
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Aug 092 Prognoserat 26 Aug-28 Aug 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Aug 072/110 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Aug 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Aug till 28 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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