Visa arkiv av lördag 16 juli 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 197 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jul 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 790 (S10W80) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 16/0338Z. It was also the source for a very long duration C7 flare that occurred between 15/2010Z and 16/0005Z. A Type II radio sweep occurred in association with a C2 flare that occurred at 16/0714Z from Region 790, although LASCO imagery showed little associated CME activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 790 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. An active period occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between 16/0600 and 0900Z. A weak transient signature was observed at the ACE spacecraft near 16/0100Z with no significant geomagnetic effects resulting. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, remains in-progress. The proton flux has been on a gradual decrease and was near 11 pfu at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions may be possible with the onset of the anticipated transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period on 17 July.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jul till 19 Jul
M-klass15%05%01%
X-klass05%01%01%
Proton99%15%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 Jul 076
  Prognoserat   17 Jul-19 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-005/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jul till 19 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%

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