Viewing archive of onsdag, 12 januari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 012 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jan 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at
11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have
exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots.
Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths
since the last reporting period. However, both regions still
maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so
far.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely
source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal
hole. Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to
700 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels
possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected on
14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15
January as the high speed stream diminishes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jan till 15 Jan
| M-klass | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jan 102 Prognoserat 13 Jan-15 Jan 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jan 015/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 010/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jan till 15 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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