Viewing archive of torsdag, 30 december 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Dec 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 365 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Dec 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels today.
Region 715 (N04E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M2/Sf x-ray event that occurred at 30/1047Z along with an associated
Tenflare (230 sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep that had an
estimated shock velocity of 653 km/s. LASCO imagery depicts a
resulting CME that appears to have a weak Earth directed component.
The strong delta structure remains intact and some growth in
penumbral coverage was observed during the period. Region 716
(S16E52) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 715 remains magnetically complex
enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. The
elevated periods are most likely due to a waning high speed coronal
hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Dec
and 1 Jan. A glancing blow from the CME that resulted from M2/Sf
flare that occurred today could produce periods of active to minor
storm conditions beginning on 2 Jan.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Dec till 02 Jan
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Dec 100 Prognoserat 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Dec 016/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Dec 011/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 008/010-008/012-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Dec till 02 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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