Viewing archive of fredag, 13 augusti 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Aug 13 2210 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 226 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Aug 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
656 (S13W22) produced an X1/1n major flare at 13/1812Z with an
associated 180 sfu Tenflare. Imagery from the LASCO instrument
remains insufficient at the time of this writing for determination
of CME activity. Region 656 also produced an M1/Sf flare that
occurred at 13/0729 and an M1/1f event that occurred at 13/1209Z,
neither of these flares had any significant CME activity observed on
LASCO imagery. Region 656 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification and did show a very slight growth in sunspot
area during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains very capable of
producing further isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 August with the
anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity that was observed
late on 10 August. Isolated active periods may be possible on day
two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering effects from
the expected shock. A return to predominantly quiet conditions is
expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from SOHO/LASCO.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Aug till 16 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Aug 149 Prognoserat 14 Aug-16 Aug 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Aug 006/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Aug till 16 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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