Viewing archive of onsdag, 21 juli 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 203 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Jul 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 649 (S10W41)
produced a C6.6/1f at 21/0034 UTC. Region 652 produced several
C-class flares, including a C8.9/1f at 21/0521 UTC. Region 649 was
stable in size and decreased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma
configuration. Region 652 increased signficantly in size over the
period, to 2010 millionths in white light, although most of the
growth was observed in the trailing penumbral field. The region's
magnetic class continues to be beta-gamma-delta, but all of the
magnetic complexity is in the northern part of the leader spots. No
new regions were numbered on the visible disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate. However, there is still a possibility for
major flare activity from Region 652.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled tomorrow (22 July), with active to
minor storm conditions expected on day two (23 July) from the
possible effects of a CME observed on LASCO imagery on 20 July.
Geomagnetic activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions
on 24 July.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Jul till 24 Jul
| M-klass | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Jul 172 Prognoserat 22 Jul-24 Jul 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-025/025-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Jul till 24 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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