Viewing archive of lördag, 17 januari 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jan 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 017 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Jan 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region
540 (S14E15), the source of several low C-class flares throughout
the period, produced an M5 flare at 17/1750Z. Moderate to strong
radio bursts accompanied this flare, including a 580 sfu Tenflare
and an extraordinary 270,000 sfu burst on 245 MHz (observed at both
Sagamore Hill and Palehua observatories). A Type II radio sweep (784
km/s) was also observed. Region 540 is a moderate size group of
approximately 350 millionths of white light areal coverage with
minor magnetic mixing. Region 537 (N04W70) continues in a slow decay
phase as it approaches the west limb. Isolated C-class activity was
observed from this region. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Region 540.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed
stream is responsible for the weak disturbed periods. The IMF Bz was
predominantly northward which offset the geomagnetic effects of the
high speed flow. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 18 January as
the high speed stream subsides. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 19 January. A disturbance associated with today's M5
flare, is expect to begin on 20 January. Active to minor storm
conditions are expected.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Jan till 20 Jan
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Jan 123 Prognoserat 18 Jan-20 Jan 125/120/110 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 139
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Jan 021/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Jan 015/016 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 015/015-010/012-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Jan till 20 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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