Viewing archive of fredag, 14 november 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 318 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Nov 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all
from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant
penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these
areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta
magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or
decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are
about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is
a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of
Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as
well.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC
through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high
speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating
but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz),
all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days
(14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the
third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the
continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Nov 099 Prognoserat 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Nov 028/042 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Nov 028/036 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
AR3654 1IMF - BT strength 5What are these long and thin eruptions? 6AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 135.5 +27.6 |