Viewing archive of onsdag, 17 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 260 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 456, just beyond
west limb near S08, produced an M1 flare at 16/2224 UTC. Coronal
loops were seen in association with the x-ray event. Few flares have
occurred since then, as the disk has been quiet and stable. One new
region was assigned, Region 463 (N09E74).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A brief
quiet period began the interval prior to the onset of the high speed
solar wind stream. The solar wind radial speed reached approximately
800 km/s at 1500 UTC. Its source is a large coronal hole located in
the western solar hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two
days, then calming to be unsettled to active by day three. The high
speed stream should buffet the magnetosphere for the majority of the
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Sep till 20 Sep
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Sep 106 Prognoserat 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/037 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Sep 025/060 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 025/040-020/025-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Sep till 20 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 55% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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