Viewing archive of onsdag, 25 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 176 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. The period was highlighted by a
very long duration C3.7 X-ray flare and CME that appears to have
originated from behind the NE limb. The likely source region of this
event is old Region 375 (N12, L=026) which was very large and
complex during its last transit of the visible disk. It is due to
make its return on the visible disk late on day two. Region 391
(N14W09) continues to grow, but after the burst of minor C-class
flares yesterday, it could only yield minor plage fluctuations this
period. No other noteworthy activity was observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Increased activity is possible on days two and three
with the return of old Region 375.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 520 to 620 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through day two. A
large southern coronal hole with a transequatorial extension will
move into a geoeffective position by day three; consequently,
occasional minor storm conditions are expected by the end of the
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Jun till 28 Jun
| M-klass | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| X-klass | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Jun 116 Prognoserat 26 Jun-28 Jun 115/120/130 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Jun 020/031 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Jun 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 012/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Jun till 28 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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