Viewing archive of söndag, 25 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 145 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 368 (S33E37)
produced the largest event of the period, a C3.0/Sf flare that
occurred at 25/1754Z. This region exhibits a simple Hax alpha
magnetic structure. Region 365 (S08E08) has shown rapid growth
throughout the period in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity.
Late in the period this region produced its first reported flare, a
B5.2 x-ray flare occurring at 25/2036Z. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 365 has become capable of producing C-class
flares, if growth continues at this rate an isolated M-class flare
may be a possibility over the next 24-48 hours.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An
oscillating Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
allowed for two consecutive periods of minor storm conditions at
both the middle and high latitudes during local nighttime hours.
Elevated conditions are due to a high speed stream coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through the forecast
period. Minor storm conditions are possible especially at local
nighttime hours. Isolated major storm intervals are possible on day
two of the period. The elevated activity is expected in
anticipation of yet another recurrent high speed stream coronal
hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 May till 28 May
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 May 121 Prognoserat 26 May-28 May 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 25 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 May 014/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 May 020/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 020/025-025/030-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 May till 28 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 50% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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